akar.earthNon-permanence risk: Definition
What is non-permanence risk? How carbon projects score the chance of losing stored carbon, how it sets buffer contributions, and key Indonesian factors.
Non-permanence risk is the likelihood that carbon a project has stored or protected will be released back to the atmosphere before the end of its commitment period. In forest carbon it is usually expressed as a risk score that sets how many credits go into a buffer pool.
Why it matters
Non-permanence risk turns the abstract idea of permanence into a number. That number cuts directly into saleable credits, influences ratings and buyer appetite, and is a key line in investor due diligence. A credible, honest score protects buyers and the wider market.
How it is assessed
Verra’s AFOLU non-permanence risk tool is the best-known method. Projects score three categories:
- Internal risk: management capacity, financial viability, opportunity cost of alternative land use, and how long the project commitment lasts.
- External risk: land and resource tenure, community engagement, political and governance risk.
- Natural risk: likelihood and severity of fire, drought, flood, storms, pests and disease, discounted for mitigation measures.
Scores are combined into an overall rating, with a minimum floor and a maximum above which a project cannot register. Other programmes use their own risk frameworks. A validation and verification body checks the evidence for each score.
Indonesia angle
Indonesian projects often face higher external and natural risk scores than average. Common factors include overlapping land claims, spatial plan revisions, changing carbon regulations, peat fire in drained landscapes and El Niño droughts. Mitigation evidence lowers the score: fire brigades and canal blocking on peat, recognised tenure under social forestry or customary forest rules, signed community agreements, and a diversified revenue plan. Independent due diligence helps test whether the score holds up.
Common mistakes
- Scoring political risk as low without addressing recent regulatory changes.
- Claiming fire mitigation credit without records of patrols and equipment.
- Using one assessment for the whole crediting period instead of updating it.
Related terms
See buffer pool, reversal and permanence, or browse the carbon standards hub.
Frequently asked questions
What risk factors are scored?
Typically internal risks (project management, finances, opportunity cost, longevity), external risks (land tenure, community engagement, political risk) and natural risks (fire, drought, pests, extreme weather).
How often is non-permanence risk reassessed?
Under Verra, the risk assessment is updated at each verification, so the buffer contribution can change over the project's life.