VM0048 Jurisdictional Baseline Allocation

Updated 2026-11-02 · 3 min read · By the akar.earth specialist team

VM0048 baseline allocation explained: how Verra sets jurisdictional activity data, builds risk maps and allocates REDD+ baselines to projects in Indonesia.

VM0048 baseline allocation is how Verra sets REDD+ baselines: it calculates expected deforestation for a whole jurisdiction from independent activity data, maps where that deforestation is most likely, and allocates each project a share according to the risk inside its boundary. Developers no longer choose their own deforestation rate, which is the main integrity change from legacy REDD+ methods.

Why allocation matters

Under older methods, each developer modelled its own baseline using a reference region. That allowed projects in the same landscape to claim, together, more avoided deforestation than the landscape could plausibly have experienced. Allocation fixes the total at jurisdiction level, then shares it out. See the REDD+ baseline controversy.

How allocation works, step by step

The methodology and Verra’s procedures set the details. In outline:

1. Define the jurisdiction at the administrative level allowed by the methodology.
2. Produce activity data. Measure historical deforestation across the jurisdiction over a reference period, using remote sensing and accuracy assessment.
3. Project jurisdictional deforestation for the baseline validity period, based on the historical data.
4. Build a deforestation risk map that ranks every forest pixel by its relative likelihood of being cleared, using factors such as distance to roads, past clearing and settlements.
5. Allocate to projects. Each project receives baseline deforestation in proportion to the risk within its boundary.
6. Update periodically. Activity data and allocation are revisited on a fixed cycle.

Carbon stock data still come from the project’s own inventory, so field measurement quality still drives credit volumes. See plot sampling design.

Who is affected

• New REDD+ developers, whose financial models depend on the allocated baseline.
• Existing REDD+ projects moving from legacy methods to VM0048 at baseline reassessment.
• Governments, because allocation interacts with national reference levels and nesting.
• Buyers and raters, who see allocated baselines as more credible.

How it applies in Indonesia and Southeast Asia

Indonesia is the largest REDD+ supplier in Southeast Asia, so allocation matters here more than almost anywhere. Points to consider:

• Jurisdiction choice. Deforestation rates vary sharply between provinces and districts. The administrative level used for allocation strongly affects results. Confirm with Verra which level applies.
• Data quality. Persistent cloud, smoke and complex land use (oil palm, rubber, shifting cultivation) make activity data harder to produce. Look at the accuracy assessment Verra publishes.
• Peat. Allocation addresses deforestation area. Emissions from peat drainage and fire depend on additional methods; check how VM0048 modules treat them.
• Nesting with national systems. Indonesia sets national reference levels and the FOLU Net Sink 2030 target. Perpres 110/2025 and Permenhut 6/2026 govern forestry carbon trading, and units traded domestically must be recorded in SRUK. A project baseline from Verra may differ from national figures. See nesting projects in jurisdictions.
• Many projects, one pool. Where several REDD+ projects share a jurisdiction, they share one allocation. Concession and social forestry projects in the same province compete for the same baseline total.

How to read an allocation for your project

When Verra’s activity data and risk map are available for your jurisdiction:

• Overlay your boundary on the risk map and check the distribution of high-risk pixels.
• Compare allocated hectares with your own historical deforestation analysis.
• Check accuracy statistics of the activity data and how uncertainty is treated.
• Test sensitivity: how would boundary changes, such as excluding low-risk areas, affect the allocation?

Common pitfalls

• Modelling with legacy baselines. Use the published allocation, or a conservative proxy, before investing.
• Ignoring the risk map. A project in a low-risk area of a high-deforestation jurisdiction may receive little baseline.
• Weak carbon stock data. Allocation fixes hectares; your inventory still sets tonnes.
• Assuming allocations are permanent. They are updated on a cycle.

Relationship to ICVCM CCP status

Jurisdiction-allocated baselines are central to why VM0048 is CCP-Approved. Legacy developer-modelled baselines are not the route to the CCP label. See CCP label.

Next steps

Compare project vs jurisdictional REDD+, read baseline setting, visit the REDD+ hub or the standards hub. Our due diligence service tests REDD+ project economics under allocation.