AKAR Carbon Simulator: Ex-Ante Carbon Scenarios

Updated 2026-11-02 · 2 min read · By the akar.earth specialist team

AKAR Carbon Simulator models ex-ante carbon scenarios for ARR, agroforestry and mangrove projects: growth, survival, deductions and credit timing.

The AKAR Carbon Simulator projects how much carbon a planting or restoration design will remove over time and how many credits it may generate, after the deductions a methodology requires. It is built for ARR, agroforestry and mangrove projects in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, where species mixes and smallholder planting make simple spreadsheets unreliable.

What problem it solves

Ex-ante estimates drive project finance, offtake contracts and PDDs. Yet many are built on one generic growth rate, one allometric equation and no allowance for mortality. They overstate early credits and ignore when deductions apply. Our ex-ante estimation guide describes the common errors. The Simulator replaces those shortcuts with explicit, adjustable assumptions.

Capabilities

• Species and mixtures: model single species or mixed planting, including agroforestry with shade trees and tree crops.
• Growth curves: non-linear growth by species or group, from published sources and, where available, measured plots.
• Allometry and carbon conversion: species-specific equations where published, or pantropical models with wood density; root-to-shoot ratios and carbon fraction applied transparently.
• Survival and management: mortality over time, replanting, thinning and harvest cycles.
• Methodology deductions: baseline, leakage, uncertainty and buffer contributions, in line with the chosen methodology such as VM0047.
• Scenarios: conservative, central and optimistic cases side by side.
• Outputs: annual and cumulative tables, charts and a methods summary.

How it is used

1. Import a boundary and strata from AKAR Eligibility, or enter areas manually.
2. Define the planting design for each stratum: species, density, timing.
3. Set survival, growth source and management assumptions.
4. Choose the methodology and deduction settings.
5. Run scenarios and compare results.
6. Export tables for the PDD, financial model or offtake discussion.

Who it is for

• Developers designing ARR and agroforestry projects.
• Investors testing a developer’s projected volumes.
• Supply-chain programmes estimating removal potential on farms.

Questions it helps answer

• How many credits could this design generate in years 5, 10 and 20, and when does the first issuance become realistic?
• How much do survival rates in the first three years change the total?
• Does a mixed native-species design deliver enough volume compared with a fast-growing plantation?
• What happens to net credits if harvest is introduced, or if the buffer contribution is higher than expected?

Seeing these trade-offs early helps developers design projects buyers will trust.

Limitations

The Simulator is a projection tool. Results are only as good as the growth and survival assumptions, and growth data for many native Indonesian species is limited. Real credits depend on what is measured and verified, not on what was projected. We recommend conservative settings for anything shown to buyers, and calibration with field plots once trees are established.

Related service and tools

Our carbon modelling service uses the Simulator, adding specialist review and DNDC soil modelling where needed. For a rough number in seconds, use the free ARR carbon estimator. See the ARR hub and the full AKAR suite.

Access

Access is through a demo request. Message us with your area, species and target methodology, and we will run a sample scenario with you.