Indonesia’s NDC and the Land Sector

Updated 2026-11-02 · 4 min read · By the akar.earth specialist team

How Indonesia’s NDC relies on forestry and land use, what the targets mean for forest carbon projects, and how the NDC shapes credit exports.

Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is its climate pledge under the Paris Agreement, and forestry and other land use (FOLU) carries the largest share of its planned emission reductions. The Enhanced NDC of September 2022 targets a 31.89% cut against business-as-usual by 2030 on its own effort and 43.20% with international support, which is why Indonesian carbon regulation treats forest carbon as part of the national accounting first and a tradeable asset second.

What the NDC is

An NDC is the target each Paris Agreement party submits and updates every five years. Indonesia’s path has run from a first NDC (29% unconditional, 41% conditional) to the Enhanced NDC in 2022, and on to a Second NDC prepared in 2025. Some sources, including the IDXCarbon website, still quote the older 26% to 41% framing from earlier commitments, so always check which version a document refers to. For the figures now in force, read the latest submission on the UNFCCC NDC registry. For the general concept, see our NDC glossary entry.

The NDC covers energy, waste, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture and forestry. Forestry is the sector where Indonesia expects the biggest gains. Its main sector strategy is the FOLU Net Sink 2030 goal: by 2030 the forest and land sector should absorb more than it emits.

Who it applies to

The NDC is a state commitment, not a law that binds companies directly. It reaches project developers, landholders and buyers through the domestic rules that implement it:

• The carbon economic value (NEK) framework, first set by Perpres 98/2021 and now anchored by Perpres 110/2025, whose full title links carbon pricing instruments to national GHG control.
• Sector procedures, such as Permenhut 6/2026 for forestry carbon trading.
• The national registry, now SRUK, which records carbon units so that the same tonne is not counted twice.

In practice, every forest carbon project in Indonesia is also an input to the national inventory. That is the policy reason behind registration, recording and authorisation requirements.

What it requires and changes

The NDC shapes forest carbon rules in three ways.

National accounting comes first. Because forest reductions count towards Indonesia’s own target, the government wants every unit recorded in a national system. This prevents double counting between the national inventory, domestic buyers and foreign buyers.

Exports need authorisation. When a credit is transferred abroad and used towards another country’s target or an international compliance scheme, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement requires a corresponding adjustment. Indonesia then adds that tonne back to its own emissions balance. That is a real cost to the NDC, so the government controls which units can leave and on what terms.

Policy shifts affect the market. The IETA policy paper we cite notes that international carbon financing to Indonesia “effectively came to a halt” after earlier regulations aimed at NDC alignment. The 2025–2026 reforms, including Perpres 110/2025, POJK 10/2026 and the forestry and waste procedures, are partly an attempt to restore a workable route for international buyers while protecting the NDC.

What it means for developers and buyers

For developers: design projects so that they fit both the national system and an international standard. Expect to record units in SRUK, to follow the forestry procedure, and to need a clear position on whether your credits will be authorised for export. Build the MRV data set so the same plot and remote-sensing evidence can serve both domestic reporting and a Verra or Gold Standard verification.

For buyers: ask early whether the credits you are buying are authorised with a corresponding adjustment, or are non-authorised units suitable only for contribution or voluntary claims. That distinction affects which claims you can make, and it matters more for compliance uses such as CORSIA. Our guide on Article 6.2 and ITMOs explains the mechanics.

For investors: the NDC creates both demand and risk. The government needs land-sector reductions to meet its target, so it supports projects that deliver them. But it can also restrict exports if too many tonnes leave the national account.

Open questions

• Second NDC detail. We have not verified the sector split and target structure of the 2025 submission in our research. Check the UNFCCC registry before quoting it.
• Export ceilings. It is not yet clear whether Indonesia will cap the volume of forest units authorised for export, or how it will price the corresponding adjustment.
• Interaction with results-based payments. Jurisdictional programmes and results-based payments also count towards the NDC. How these are nested with project credits is still being worked out (see nesting projects in jurisdictions).

Our Indonesia regulatory navigation service maps a specific project against the current NDC-linked rules. For the wider picture, start at the Indonesia regulation hub.